April 22, 2009
There are Alternatives to Foreclosure
Many homeowners are struggling to pay the mortgage, or see a problem looming with a substantial increase in their mortgage payment as it re-sets. They may have borrowed unwisely, or just been unlucky with reduced income through losing a job or other reasons.

These homeowners may be quite prepared to sell their home to solve the problem, but can't do so because the value of their home is less than the amount they owe. They are "upside down" on their mortgage.

But most of them think that foreclosure is inevitable, and the only possible outcome.
Not so . .
.

There are several reasons why you should try to avoid foreclosure if at all possible . . . not only does a foreclosure do long term and substantial damage to your credit, but a foreclosure on your credit history can affect present and future employment, and security clearances even at lower levels.

If you are in this position and facing foreclosure, don't assume that there is no alternative. The sooner you act, the greater the chance of working out a way forward. There are two main options to pursue, but note that they both require that you are genuinely suffering hardship and do not have the means to rectify the situation from your own resources.

Mortgage Modification. Approach your mortgage lender to see if they are able to modify your mortgage terms, by refinancing at lower interest rates or providing other temporary or longer-term relief. Don't assume they won't listen - lenders are increasingly aware of the benefits of helping to prevent foreclosure if they see the opportunity. Of course, the proposal must be viable. The government also announced a scheme a few weeks ago which, in certain cases, will compel lenders to modify mortgages, and in doing so provided a framework which others may wish to work with.

Short Sale. A short sale is the sale of a home where the net sale proceeds are insufficient to clear the mortgage(s), and the owner is unable to make up the shortfall from his own resources. The mortgage lender therefore cooperates with the sale and writes off the shortfall. Mortgage lenders are becoming very cooperative towards short sales, because if the only alternative is foreclosure, there are several reasons why they will lose less and benefit more from an agreed short sale. While a short sale will affect your credit, the impact is significantly less and for a shorter period than a foreclosure, and should not affect employment or security clearance issues.

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I have recently undertaken specialized training in the issues surrounding distressed property ownership, and have achieved the CDPE designation (Certified Distressed Property Expert). This leaves me very well placed to advise you and help you through these difficult times, and I encourage you to contact me to let me help you.

If you live in or around Warren County, VA, and would like to talk it through, please give me a call on (540) 671-1367 or send me an email with some contact points.

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January 27, 2009
Catching up over the past 18 months
Well, I'm ashamed to admit that it's almost 18 months since I last posted to my blog, but I am committed to making up for that with regular posts from here on to inform readers about the local market in and around Warren County, Virginia, and other local and real estate issues.

So to start to catch up, I looked back to where we were in August 2007 when I last posted. Wow! what a dramatic sea-change we have seen. Where were we then? In contrast to what many of my colleagues and the media in general were saying at the time, I was stressing how the market was drying up. I was quoting 40 to 55 sales per month (down 50% from peak) in Warren County, and a 12 month supply of homes. We had just begun to see the initial "credit crisis" with problems with some mortgage lenders, but little did any of us anticipate what was yet to come.

Since then, the housing market has steadily dwindled, and more rapidly so over the past 9 months or so. Front Royal/Warren County has for some time been seeing only 25 to 35 home sales per month, with an overall supply of about 18 months. Half of those sales are typically foreclosures, with a lot more being "short sales" where the bank is losing money and cooperating with a voluntary sale by the owner without foreclosing.

The backdrop to all this has been the implosion of the "sub-prime" mortgage market, leading to problems with securitization of mortgages in the secondary market. The tightening of credit, and subsequently the illiquidity and failure of several financial institutions, has led to a global economic crisis which governments around the world are fighting to underpin, with far reaching support and stimulus packages (such as the "TARP" in the US) including huge national investments in banks. At the same time, a few weeks ago it was confirmed what anyone already knew unless they were in denial - that the USA was in a recession which had officially started in December 2007.

The fallout from all this has been a rapid decline in consumer confidence, with increasing job losses as employers pare their costs to meet falling demand, and a fear of the widespread talk of a another depression like the 1930's.

House prices in this area (those that sell, not the "hopes and aspirations" of some of the asking prices) are now back close to 2003 levels, and with interest rates at record lows, there are some great opportunities for qualified buyers. Of course the opposite can be said for sellers - the chances are that anyone who bought a home from late 2003 onwards with 100% or near-100% finance, or who refinanced a substantial part of their equity since then, is unable to sell that home and clear their mortgage from the net proceeds.

The past 18 months has seen a dramatic and traumatic turnaround in fortunes. In my coming posts, I will try to make a little more sense of how it impacts the housing market locally.

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