Government Assistance for Homeowners

The government yesterday announced their long-anticipated initiative called the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. If you are interested, click the link to read the White House Fact Sheet. The plan aims to:
a) stem the flow of foreclosures with a loan modification plan
b) help those who owe more than their home is worth, to refinance
c) ensure low mortgage rates for the foreseeable future

The two main problems with the initiative are that it only addresses “conforming” mortgages, and while it will no doubt help many deserving families, it will also reward many others who have in the past borrowed unwisely or beyond their means. It is already causing a lot of resentment from among the majority of homeowners who bought wisely and within their means, and pay their mortgage every month.

As always, the devil will be in the detail, and we will learn much more when formal Guidelines to Lenders are issued March 4. Meantime, here are the main features of the initiative:

Mortgage Modification Plan (expected to cover 3 to 4 million borrowers)
- owner-occupiers only
- conforming loans only, where repayments are more than 31% of gross income
- mortgage may be up to date, or in arrears
- overall, repayments will be reduced to 31% of gross income by reducing interest rate (partially subsidized by the government)
- interest rate reduction for 5 years, after which it will be phased back to “regular rate”
- incentive to the borrower of $1,000 reduction in principal for each year that repayments are made on time, for up to 5 years
- also incentives to loan servicers
- debt counseling a condition, if current total debt servicing is 55% or more of monthly income
- participation by lenders is voluntary, but compulsory for those who receive TARP money
- lenders may also achieve the repayment reductions by reducing the amount owed, but this seems less likely to be done

Refinance Assistance (expected to cover 4 to 5 million borrowers)
- owner-occupiers only, with conforming loans
- first mortgage cannot exceed 105% of current value of the home
- there can be an existing second mortgage, but that lender will need to agree to remain “second in line”
- must have satisfactory payment record, and payments must be current for the 3 months prior to entering the scheme
- new mortgage must be a fixed rate over 15 or 30 years, with no prepayment penalties or balloon repayment
- the portion of the new mortgage in excess of the home’s current value must remain unsecured

Additional Support for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
- government doubling its stake from $200bn to $400bn
- designed to increase confidence and promote stability and liquidity
- should ensure sustained low mortgage rates for the foreseeable future

* * * * * * * *
There are a lot of questions unanswered, and I am sure the pundits will be picking everything apart over the coming days. But here are my initial thoughts:

- the concept that this "rewards bad behavior" has to be balanced with the overall benefits to be gained by reducing foreclosures - if that is achieved. Foreclosures devalue all homes in a neighborhood, so this will hopefully provide some benefits to everyone.

- a "conforming loan" was by definiton no more than 80% of the value of the home when it was bought (or when refinanced). The limitation that the loan must now be no more than 105% of the current value would work if house prices had only dropped by some 25%. But in Warren County, Virginia, we have seen sharper declines than that. There will be a lot of people who bought at the peak, who will not meet these criteria.

- we have seen a lot of inconsistency between lenders in how they handle short sales or potential foreclosures. Some won't talk until the mortgage is 3 months in arrears (encouraging owners to not pay!), others won't talk until the home has been on the market for at least 3 months. My hope is that the "Guidelines to Lenders" will provide a standard set of procedures which may encourage all lenders to behave more consistently even with loans that fall outside those guidelines. We'll see . . .

Market Update & Mortgage Turmoil

Back in March I wrote that we had a quiet market. Now we are getting well through the summer, it is time to take a step back and review things. And it's not a pretty picture for sellers. Hopes of steady improvement have long since evaporated, and we are looking at a market which has already "peaked" for the summer, even though that peak was way below last year's levels.

All summer the number of homes on the market in Warren County has been hovering around 650, and as I write there are still 655 active listings, and just a further 57 homes under contract. With sales over recent months running around 40 to 55 per month, there is a 12 month supply of homes on the market, compared with around a 2 month supply before the market began to turn in July 2005.

The chart shows the trend since January 2005, with the rapid growth of active listings (blue), decline of sales (yellow), and the trend in the supply of homes on the market (red). Click on the chart to see a larger image.

The latest cause for concern is the turmoil in the mortgage market. With the increase in foreclosures, mortgage quality has become a big concern in the wholesale market where mortgages are "sold" and bundled as mortgage bonds to the investment funds (such as the one looking after your 401k). The result is that some lenders have been unable to bundle and sell their loans on, and as a result have been unable to lend new mortgages - effectively having to close shop.

Lending criteria across the board have been progressively tightened, and many people who could get a loan a few weeks ago are now unable to; many who could get 100% finance may now have to put 10% down (which may well count them out); and those looking for "no doc" or "stated income" loans may be looking in vain. In a nutshell, good quality credit is more important than ever (perhaps it always should have been?), and most of the "creative" lending has gone out of the window.

If you were pre-qualified a few weeks ago with your lender, check again before you do any more house hunting. You need to make sure that you are still on the same page with the amount that you can borrow, and the terms attached to it.

Dangerous "Expert" Tips

I just had to comment on something I saw on "Today" this morning on NBC. The channel's proclaimed "real estate expert" Barbara Corcoran was interviewed by Meredith Viera, and gave out some tips for Buyers. There were several tips which in my mind were quirky, but here is the one that frightened me . . . once I heard it, I backtracked on my Tivo to make sure I didn't hear it wrong, and noted down her words. This is what she said, verbatim:-

"Offer all cash if you are pre-qualified for financing. Most people know they can get the financing, and then go in and say their bid is based on financing. It doesn't make any difference. What you should be doing is say 'I'm an all cash buyer'. You've got the financing - go in as an all cash buyer".

Oh dear!! Please don't EVER think of doing this, and don't try to encourage your Realtor to do so either. If you intend to support the purchase with finance, then you should be stating the fact in the offer, and making the offer conditional upon that finance. Why? Because (1) it is a material fact, and by following Barbara Corcoran's advice, you (and your Realtor) would be in great danger of misrepresentation; and (2) because if for any reason you ended up unable to get your finance (for instance, you lose your job?), the inability to raise the funds would be no defense, and you would be in default on the contract. This would risk your escrow deposit at best, and leave you being sued at worst (Please note: I am not a lawyer, so this is a personal opinion only - if in doubt, take professional legal advice).

It does worry me when people speak on TV to a large audience that regards them as "an expert" on the subject, but then give advice that is ill-conceived, misleading, or downright dangerous. Let me assure you - the person who knows best how to help you with purchasing or selling real estate is your Realtor, and your Realtor alone. Not your relatives, neighbors, work colleagues, and - worst of all sometimes - "experts" on TV!

Talking of which, I had a settlement yesterday on a property on High Knob, here in Front Royal. As we were doing the final walkthrough, Carson, the buyer, said to me "I've been worried because everything has gone so smoothly, yet everyone kept telling me about all the problems and nightmares that were going to happen". No problem Carson, you were in the hands of my excellent recommended mortgage guy Adam Huddleston, owner/broker of Integrity Home Mortgage; and of course in the hands of an experienced Realtor who has sold over 300 properties in and around Warren County, Virginia, over the past seven or so years. Experience counts for a lot.