A Quiet Market in Warren County

Yes, we all know the market has been tough over the past 18 months, with prices falling in Warren County and surrounding areas during the last 8 or 9 months of 2006 in particular. The indications are that prices may have now leveled out, and with mortgage rates staying low, there has been cause for cautious optimism that the buyers will come out of their shells as they begin to feel more comfortable.

But what I am now seeing is a series of new listings coming on to the market with inflated prices, suggesting that the sellers believe we are about to embark on a bouyant market. Have I missed something? Please tell me, where is the evidence? Year to date unit sales in Warren County are 18% down on this time last year, and homes under contract are a whopping 38% down.

Even more worrying, there are again nearly 500 homes on the market in the county (492 in fact, 37% up on last year and more than three times the number from 2 years ago ), and I'm looking out at several more inches of fresh snow as I write, so I'm sure we are still in the winter. Based on the sales in the first 2 months of the year, that is a massive 15 months supply. If you want your home to sell, it has to stand out against the many others that it is competing with. It is not a market for "let's try it at that price and see if we get any bites".

So yet again, I am going to get on my soap box and preach. Here goes . . . it doesn't matter how much you WANT for your home, or how much you NEED for it. The market will dictate the price, and if you don't show willing to meet the market (with a realistic asking price), then the market won't come to meet you. Overpriced homes will not be shown, or at best, the wrong people will be viewing the home, as they will be expecting more for their money.

It has been a hard lesson for many over the past 18 months, but it seems there are still those who haven't learned from it. So come on folks - you know who you are - get real, and price your home as if you mean to sell it. You do want to sell it, don't you?

Tax Assessments Stir Emotions

There have been some strong emotions over the new tax assessments, which arrived in owners' mail boxes a couple of weeks ago. Warren County likes to do things differently - unlike most counties, real estate taxes are paid annually in arrears as one lump sum, and values are only reassessed every four years. Also unlike most other counties, it has previously not made much of an attempt to get close to market value, so owners have become used to seeing tax assessments way below their property's true worth.

Suddenly however, the numbers hitting people in the face really are market value - and in some cases higher (much of the work was done earlier, before the drop in prices over the summer and fall). I have had a lot of calls and emails from past clients, asking for help with 'comps' as they want to appeal their assessment. It's strange how most people think their home is worth more than it is when they want to sell, but feel the value has been over-stated when they get a tax assessment :)

But it really doesn't matter as long as everyone is being treated equally with a 'level playing field'. It seems that assessments have increased on average around 90%, but that doesn't mean that real estate taxes will go up 90%. Instead, the county will be fixing its 2007 tax rate in May next year, and will adjust the rate down (currently $0.82 per $100, or 0.82%) to compensate for the increased assessments, subject of course to the annual increase that they are looking for (in 2006 the rate increased from $0.79 to $0.82).

A 'public memo' was released November 15 by Doug Stanley, Warren County Administrator, explaining all this - click here to view it. Good job Doug! But it's a pity that this couldn't have been released before the assessments were published, so that people were forewarned, and had time to get their minds around what to expect. I suspect that may have reduced the number of people appealing their assessments over the past couple of weeks.