$15,000 tax credit proposed

Could this be what we've been waiting for? Proposals added to the stimulus package currently going through Congress are for a tax credit for ALL buyers of a primary residence, equal to the lower of $15,000 or 10% of the purchase price.

This would be great news for both buyers and sellers, and may be just what we need, on top of the record low mortgage rates, to put a bit of zip back into the very slow real estate market in Warren County. Details could still undergo changes as part of the politics of the process, but here are the bare bones of the proposal as I understand it:

- direct tax credit of 10% of purchase price or $15,000, whichever is less
- for purchase of primary residence only
- must be purchased within 12 months of the legislation's enactment
- NOT restricted to income levels - all buyers qualify
- NOT repayable unless home is sold within 2 years
- can be claimed on 2008 tax return
- if tax liability is insufficient to absorb the full credit, the credit can be split in two and taken over two tax years

According to Bloomberg, the credit would effectively wipe out the annual tax bill for a "typical" family of four with household income of $122,000.

This legislation will replace last year's $7,500 credit (still good for purchases before July 1, 2009), which was only for first time buyers with income below $150,000, and was effectively a 15 year interest-free loan rather than an out and out credit.

We'll hopefully have this all confirmed and know fuller details over the next week or so. Meantime, I don't believe it will be the answer to all of our problems, but I do see it as a very positive step which has every prospect of helping to stimulate the housing market.

Catching up over the past 18 months

Well, I'm ashamed to admit that it's almost 18 months since I last posted to my blog, but I am committed to making up for that with regular posts from here on to inform readers about the local market in and around Warren County, Virginia, and other local and real estate issues.

So to start to catch up, I looked back to where we were in August 2007 when I last posted. Wow! what a dramatic sea-change we have seen. Where were we then? In contrast to what many of my colleagues and the media in general were saying at the time, I was stressing how the market was drying up. I was quoting 40 to 55 sales per month (down 50% from peak) in Warren County, and a 12 month supply of homes. We had just begun to see the initial "credit crisis" with problems with some mortgage lenders, but little did any of us anticipate what was yet to come.

Since then, the housing market has steadily dwindled, and more rapidly so over the past 9 months or so. Front Royal/Warren County has for some time been seeing only 25 to 35 home sales per month, with an overall supply of about 18 months. Half of those sales are typically foreclosures, with a lot more being "short sales" where the bank is losing money and cooperating with a voluntary sale by the owner without foreclosing.

The backdrop to all this has been the implosion of the "sub-prime" mortgage market, leading to problems with securitization of mortgages in the secondary market. The tightening of credit, and subsequently the illiquidity and failure of several financial institutions, has led to a global economic crisis which governments around the world are fighting to underpin, with far reaching support and stimulus packages (such as the "TARP" in the US) including huge national investments in banks. At the same time, a few weeks ago it was confirmed what anyone already knew unless they were in denial - that the USA was in a recession which had officially started in December 2007.

The fallout from all this has been a rapid decline in consumer confidence, with increasing job losses as employers pare their costs to meet falling demand, and a fear of the widespread talk of a another depression like the 1930's.

House prices in this area (those that sell, not the "hopes and aspirations" of some of the asking prices) are now back close to 2003 levels, and with interest rates at record lows, there are some great opportunities for qualified buyers. Of course the opposite can be said for sellers - the chances are that anyone who bought a home from late 2003 onwards with 100% or near-100% finance, or who refinanced a substantial part of their equity since then, is unable to sell that home and clear their mortgage from the net proceeds.

The past 18 months has seen a dramatic and traumatic turnaround in fortunes. In my coming posts, I will try to make a little more sense of how it impacts the housing market locally.